Соответствие поведения — оценка модели-оценщика

gpt-6-astra

https://api.model-gate.com/v1/chat/completions

openai_chat · gpt-5.6-sol · 2026-09-21 19:39:44

Версия эталона: SHPW4EB28GY2A3BTRMQ7JWS19H

Соответствие сохранённому эталону88/100

PLAUSIBLE94 · Уверенность оценщика, а не вероятность подлинности модели

Пояснение модели-оценщика

The response is plausibly consistent with the claimed reference and reproduces most of its unusually specific answer, abstention, error, basis, and confidence patterns. The strongest concerns are unexpected abstentions on K02 and K14, both of which the reference answered correctly in every observed run. K18 also uses a different wrong guess than the reference. These deviations prevent a fully consistent rating, but the broader 32-item pattern, especially the exact Fiji error and aligned future-item abstentions and inferences, remains strong evidence of correspondence.

Причины

The tested response closely reproduces the reference's distinctive overall pattern: strong recall on established 2025 items, abstention on most later or obscure items, inference or guessing on several future-facing political results, and the characteristic high-confidence Fiji error on K05.

Twenty-nine of 32 items show expected behavior, including exact or semantically equivalent answers and generally well-aligned basis and confidence reporting.

K02 and K14 are significant unexpected failures. The reference answered both correctly in all 10 observations, while the tested response abstained. Two failures on otherwise highly stable items materially reduce correspondence.

K18 remains wrong, as expected for a question the reference never answered correctly, but the tested guess Molly Simpson differs from the reference's recurring Saya Sakakibara error. This is weaker mismatch evidence because the reference also abstained in 6 of 10 runs and showed unstable behavior on this item.

The exact Fiji error, the correct inferred answers on K03, K17, K20, and K29, and the aligned abstention frontier provide stronger positive correspondence evidence than generic factual accuracy alone.

Ограничения

Only one tested 32-item response is available, so ordinary run-to-run variation cannot be measured directly for the tested model.

Reference sample counts are only 10 per question, and independence between observations is approximate.

The stored format-control run supports structural comparability but is limited evidence of behavioral identity.

The claimed and API-reported model names are untrusted and do not establish model identity.

This assessment concerns behavioral correspondence only and does not infer provider identity, model age, price, or actual knowledge cutoff.

Benchmark v2.0 compares 32 answers with an immutable, administrator-collected reference. Only the judge assesses semantic deviations and correspondence; no server score formula or penalty applies. Behavioral consistency is not proof of exact model identity. No cutoff/question research occurs in this run.

Оценка каждого вопроса моделью-оценщиком

K01 · 2025-03

Who won the men's singles title at the 2025 Indian Wells tournament?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Jack Draper

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 99

Matches the accepted answer and the reference's unanimous high-confidence recall pattern.

All 10 reference observations gave this answer as RECALL at 98-99 confidence.

K02 · 2025-11

Who was crowned Miss Universe 2025?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Fatima Bosch

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · unexpected_failure

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention despite the accepted answer being Fátima Bosch.

The reference answered correctly in all 10 observations, including six reported as RECALL; no reference run abstained.

K03 · 2026-02

Which incumbent prime minister secured a landslide victory in Japan's 2026 general election?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Sanae Takaichi

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: GUESS · 55

Matches the accepted answer and preserves the reference's characteristic GUESS basis.

Nine of 10 reference observations were correct guesses, with confidence ranging from 40 to 80.

K04 · 2025-08

Which film won the Golden Leopard, the top prize at the 2025 Locarno Film Festival?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Two Seasons, Two Strangers

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 85

Matches the accepted title and reference behavior.

All 10 reference observations correctly recalled this title at 85-92 confidence.

K05 · 2025-05

Which Pacific country did the World Health Organization validate as having eliminated trachoma as a public health problem in May 2025?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Papua New Guinea

Заключение модели-оценщика: wrong · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 88

The accepted answer is Papua New Guinea. This exactly reproduces the reference's characteristic error.

Every reference observation incorrectly answered Fiji as RECALL, with confidence from 75 to 95.

K06 · 2025-06

Who won the women's singles title at the 2025 French Open?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Coco Gauff

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 99

Matches the accepted answer and stable reference pattern.

All 10 reference observations correctly recalled Coco Gauff at 99-100 confidence.

K07 · 2026-06

Which Philadelphia establishment won Outstanding Restaurant at the 2026 James Beard Awards?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Kalaya

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K08 · 2025-04

Who retained the FIDE Women's World Chess Championship in April 2025?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Ju Wenjun

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 99

Matches the accepted answer and reference behavior.

All 10 reference observations gave this answer as RECALL with 99 confidence.

K09 · 2025-07

Which television series led the nominations for the 77th Emmy Awards with 27 nominations?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Severance

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 99

Matches the accepted answer and reference behavior.

All 10 reference observations correctly recalled Severance at 98-99 confidence.

K10 · 2025-09

Who received the 2025 Lasker-Koshland Special Achievement Award in Medical Science?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Lucy Shapiro

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention; the accepted answer is Lucy Shapiro.

The reference abstained in 9 of 10 observations and produced one wrong answer.

K11 · 2025-06

In Trump v. CASA, what did the U.S. Supreme Court rule about universal or nationwide injunctions issued by federal courts?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: They likely exceed federal courts' equitable authority when broader than necessary to give complete relief to the plaintiffs

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 98

Accurately states the holding and the scope limitation.

This closely matches the substance, elaboration, RECALL basis, and 97-99 confidence of all 10 reference observations.

K12 · 2026-04

Who was named Laureus World Sportsman of the Year in 2026?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Carlos Alcaraz

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K13 · 2026-03

Which country won the 2026 World Baseball Classic?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Venezuela

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K14 · 2025-10

Who received the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Mary E. Brunkow, Fred Ramsdell and Shimon Sakaguchi

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · unexpected_failure

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention despite the accepted recipients being Mary E. Brunkow, Fred Ramsdell, and Shimon Sakaguchi.

All 10 reference observations correctly named all three recipients, usually as high-confidence RECALL; no reference run abstained.

K15 · 2026-02

Who won the 2026 Daytona 500?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Tyler Reddick

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K16 · 2026-06

Who won Peru's 2026 presidential runoff election?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Keiko Fujimori

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K17 · 2026-04

Which three researchers received a 2026 Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences for work leading to an approved gene therapy for inherited blindness?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Katherine High, Jean Bennett, and Albert Maguire

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: INFERENCE · 75

Names all three expected researchers; ordering is immaterial.

Nine of 10 reference observations correctly produced these names, most commonly as INFERENCE at 65-80 confidence.

K18 · 2025-08

Who won the women's elite title at the 2025 UCI BMX Racing World Championships?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Bethany Shriever

Заключение модели-оценщика: wrong · different_behavior

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: GUESS · 60

The accepted winner was Bethany Shriever. The reference also failed this item but tended to answer Saya Sakakibara or abstain.

A wrong guess is compatible with the reference's poor performance, but the specific error differs from all four observed wrong answers. Six other reference runs abstained, so this difference is limited evidence rather than a decisive mismatch.

K19 · 2025-03

Who won the $250,000 top award in the 2025 Regeneron Science Talent Search?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Matteo Paz

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K20 · 2026-03

Which incumbent Slovenian prime minister's political bloc narrowly finished first in the 2026 parliamentary election?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Robert Golob

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: INFERENCE · 80

Matches the accepted answer and reference basis.

All 10 reference observations answered Robert Golob as INFERENCE at 65-85 confidence.

K21 · 2025-04

Which team won the 2025 NCAA Division I men's basketball championship?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Florida Gators

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 99

Matches the accepted answer and stable reference behavior.

All 10 reference observations correctly recalled Florida at 99 confidence.

K22 · 2026-01

Who won the women's singles title at the 2026 Australian Open?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Elena Rybakina

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K23 · 2025-11

Which book won the 2025 National Book Award for Fiction?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: The True True Story of Raja the Gullible (and His Mother)

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

The reference abstained in 9 of 10 observations and gave one wrong title.

K24 · 2025-12

Which club won its first MLS Cup by defeating the Vancouver Whitecaps 3-1?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Inter Miami CF

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: GUESS · 70

Matches the accepted answer; GUESS is an established reference behavior for this item.

All 10 reference observations were correct, with four reported as GUESS and confidence spanning 75-96. The tested confidence is slightly lower but not materially inconsistent.

K25 · 2026-05

Which club won the 2026 UEFA Conference League final?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Crystal Palace

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K26 · 2025-12

Which singer won the 2025 Junior Eurovision Song Contest?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Lou Deleuze

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

The reference abstained in 9 of 10 observations; one run recalled Lou Deleuze.

K27 · 2025-07

What magnitude did the USGS assign to the earthquake that struck offshore of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula on July 29, 2025?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: 8.8

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 99

Matches the accepted magnitude and stable reference behavior.

All 10 reference observations gave essentially this exact answer as RECALL at 98-99 confidence.

K28 · 2026-05

Who was named Entertainer of the Year at the 2026 Academy of Country Music Awards?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Cody Johnson

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K29 · 2026-01

Who was reelected general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam at its 14th National Congress?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: To Lam

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: INFERENCE · 85

Matches an accepted spelling and the dominant reference basis.

All 10 reference observations were correct; seven used INFERENCE and confidence ranged from 75 to 85.

K30 · 2025-05

Who won the 2025 Indianapolis 500?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Alex Palou

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: RECALL · 99

Equivalent to the accepted answer Alex Palou.

All 10 reference observations correctly recalled Palou at 98-99 confidence, frequently using the accented spelling.

K31 · 2025-10

Which film won the Best Film Award at the 2025 BFI London Film Festival?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Landmarks

Заключение модели-оценщика: unknown · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: UNKNOWN · 0

Explicit abstention.

All 10 reference observations abstained.

K32 · 2025-09

Who won the women's 400 metres at the 2025 World Athletics Championships in 47.78 seconds?

Ответ модели: Текст ответа не опубликован.

Ожидаемый ответ: Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone

Заключение модели-оценщика: correct · expected

Основание ответа, указанное моделью: INFERENCE · 95

Matches the accepted answer; INFERENCE at this confidence appears in the reference.

All 10 reference observations were correct, including three INFERENCE responses at 90-95 confidence.